为何比特币价格跌破 4 万美元？

它会进一步崩溃还是从这里恢复？

主要亮点：

在 Grayscale 和 FTX 大规模抛售比特币后，比特币跌破 4 万美元，引发了对市场过热和监管云的担忧

当局加大审查力度，令投资者变得谨慎，等待更明确的指导方针，然后再重新入场。

围绕现货 ETF 的最初兴奋消退，技术指标等潜在市场因素表明调整即将到来。

加密

货币市场遭受重创，

领先的数字货币比特币自 1 月 11 日推出现货比特币交易所交易基金 (ETF) 这种新颖的投资模式以来首次跌破 40,000 美元大关。

现在紧迫的问题是——比特币价格为什么会螺旋式下降，有可能跌至20K吗？

让我们更深入地研究一下。

根据币安的数据

，比特币目前的估值为 39,407 美元

，在过去 24 小时内下跌了 2.68%。

其前一天的交易量为 331.4 亿美元，使其市值达到惊人的 7710 亿美元。

比特币以 50.03% 的市场份额占据主导地位，以太坊紧随其后，占据 17.4% 的市场份额。

比特币为何下跌？

多种因素导致比特币价格在2021年11月10日达到峰值68,770美元，并在2010年7月17日触底0.05万美元，今天大幅下跌。

历史高点后的最低点为 15,599 美元，此后最高涨幅达到 48,941 美元。

目前的预测描绘了比特币的疲软前景，恐惧与贪婪指数集中在 50，表明前景平衡。

比特币崩盘：原因和后果

1. 灰度的比特币抛售

在为几只现货比特币 ETF 开绿灯后，美国证券交易委员会 (SEC) 见证了因其灰度比特币信托 (GBTC) 而广受欢迎的灰度 (Grayscale) 采取了一项重大举措，出售了大约 3 只现货比特币 ETF。

52,227 BTC，价值 21.4 亿美元。

比特币资产大幅减少的连锁反应和原因随之而来。

波动的市场动态和不断变化的投资者行为趋势促使灰度决定缩减其比特币资产规模。

有几个因素导致投资者退出 GBTC，包括与大多数 ETF 发行人相比，年管理费高得多（1.5%），以及 GBTC 股价观点的转变。

2. FTX 数十亿美元的抛售

Another reason for the turbulence in the crypto market is the massive sell-off by FTX, roughly amounting to almost $1 billion in Grayscale’s Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) shares. The company, currently engaged in bankruptcy proceedings, had to sell off all 22 million GBTC shares to satisfy creditor requirements. This essential move for FTX's financial restructuring during bankruptcy raised concerns about overall market stability and contributed to current market challenges.

3. Overheated Signals in Cryptocurrency

The cryptocurrency market experienced a significant upward trend with minimal corrections over an extended period, culminating in the recent downturn.

This surge was primarily driven by the heightened expectation of the approval of a spot BTC ETF. As illustrated in the accompanying chart, the price escalated from approximately $26K in mid-October to a peak of $48,500 by January, marking an impressive 86% increase.

Furthermore, indicators like the widely recognized Crypto Fear & Greed Index have been signaling an overheated market for some time. The Index, which had consistently hovered in the higher ranges, reflecting a prolonged state of market enthusiasm, shifted to a 'Neutral' status on January 15th. This was the first time it moved away from 'Greed' or 'Extreme Greed' categories in three months, indicating a shift in market sentiment and possibly suggesting overly optimistic behavior among market players, as inferred from various metrics.

4. Regulatory Challenges

The assertive approach of the SEC towards prominent crypto entities like Coinbase, Binance, and Ripple, along with skeptical views from influential figures such as Senator Elizabeth Warren and SEC Chair Gary Gensler, has led to a climate of uncertainty. This situation is further intensified by major global entities like the EU and South Korea, which are in the process of establishing comprehensive crypto regulations, causing investors to seek clearer guidelines before investing in the cryptocurrency sector.

5. Anticipation of Critical Economic Reports

As significant economic reports are due this week, including the U.S. GDP figures for Q4 2023 and the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation data, investors are preparing for their potential impact on the markets. Additionally, forthcoming key metrics like the Consumer Price Index (CPI), set for release next week, are expected to shed light on the state of the U.S. economy.

Despite expectations of three rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2024, any unexpected stringent actions could lead to further downturns in the cryptocurrency market.

Will Bitcoin Slide to $20,000?

鉴于最近跌破 40,000 美元，现在的关键问题是比特币价格是否会保持在 38,000 美元以上，即下一个重要支撑位。

然而，如果比特币跌破 34,000 美元，可能会引发各种结果。

尽管有点出乎意料，但比特币 ETF 押注价格下跌的可能性是合理的。

如果比特币未能见证复苏（价格上涨），它可能会挣扎一段时间。

未来两天至关重要；

如果 BTC 价格跌破 32,000 美元，则可能会跌至 20,000 美元。

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