这次牛市本质上是周期性的，这七个信号表明牛市才刚刚开始。
就在三周前，即 2 月 12 日，比特币的价格突破了 50,000 美元的门槛。
Fundstrat Global Advisors 数字策略主管 Sean Farrell 表示：“短期内的反弹肯定还有一定的运行空间。”
他是对的！
3 月 5 日星期五，加密货币交易所的现货价格飙升至略高于 70,000 美元，然后又回落至目前的水平。
因此，在突破 50,000 美元之后，反弹肯定还有一定的上涨空间。
但在不到两年半的时间里首次重新获得历史最高价格后，有八个迹象表明该股仍有上涨空间。
1.美联储利率甚至没有下降
比特币价格飙升至历史新高，而借入美元的联邦基金利率甚至还没有开始下降。
上次比特币价格飙升至如此高位时，美元供应正处于高潮，美联储将利率压低。
这一次，它做到了，而且没有低利率。
数字资产管理公司 CoinShares 的研究主管詹姆斯·巴特菲尔 (James Butterfill) 最近告诉美国广播公司新闻 (ABC News)：“价格飙升与利率居高不下的时期同时发生，这表明需求的增长几乎不是因为为了寻找落脚点而产生的过多现金。” ”。
当这种情况发生变化时，最有可能在 2024 年，比特币免受美联储的通货紧缩庇护，成为对加密货币的巨大需求来源，同时它也享受到与科技股从现金过剩和低利率廉价借贷中获得的投资相同的推动力。利率制度。
2. BTC 有史以来第一支每月 2 万美元的蜡烛
比特币在 2 月份首次出现了 20,000 美元的月度蜡烛，这是一个充满希望的里程碑，也暗示了未来价格波动可能会突然发生。
因此，Glassnode 的一位首席链上分析师写道：“虚幻……2024 年 2 月印出了 1.984 万美元的 #Bitcoin 蜡烛，这是历史上最大的月度美元涨幅。
这使得 #Bitcoin 市值增加了 390B 美元……显着上涨了 47%。”
3.周末比特币交易量下降
根据加密货币数据分析公司 Kaiko Research 在 2 月底的一份报告中，周末加密货币交易量占每周交易量的百分比继续下降：
“然而，这种趋势由来已久：周末交易的 BTC 份额在过去六年中大幅下降，从 2018 年的 24% 下降到 2023 年的 17%。”
这很可能表明在周一至周五营业时间运营的机构对加密货币的接受和使用程度更高。
这一趋势在 2024 年也仍在延续：
“2024 年到目前为止，1 月 1 日至 2 月 20 日期间所有 BTC 交易中只有 13% 是在周末执行的。
按地区细分，海外和美国交易所的周末交易量均有所下降。”
The drop from 17% to 13% shows the massive effect of spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) on the market.
4. The Rally Overheated Coinbase (Sorry)
You know the Bitcoin price rally is going to be abrupt when the halving hasn’t happened yet, and volume melts Coinbase. The San Francisco-based cryptocurrency exchange went down at the end of February as crypto markets heated up.
The exchange experienced an outage after it was unable to handle the volume of requests. As a result, a technical glitch also told account holders they had zero balances on their accounts.
CEO Brian Armstrong posted,
“Apps are now recovering. We had modeled a ~10x surge in traffic and load tested it. This exceeded that number. It’s expensive to keep services over-provisioned, but we’ll need to keep working on auto-scaling solutions, and killing any remaining bottlenecks.”
The outage occurred soon after Bitcoin prices topped $60,000 at the exchange, the highest mark the crypto had notched since 2021. After news of the Coinbase outage began to spread on social media that Wednesday afternoon, Bitcoin lost around $2,800 of its value.
5. A Whale Pulled $1B Off Coinbase
Sorry, it’s not for sale. Not from this whale. Someone pulled $1 billion worth of Bitcoins off of Coinbase. Early on Mar. 1, a whale withdrew $1 billion worth of 16,000 BTC from Coinbase, according to Santiment.
That’s terrifically bullish for Bitcoin prices. Even as the cryptocurrency approached its previous all-time high number, this whale is not interested in selling. Furthermore, they are not alone.
In February, whales moved another more than one billion dollars worth of Bitcoin off Coinbase. They could sell for a profit now, but they seem to think the price has somewhere higher to run next.
Overall, Bitcoin on exchanges has been declining to a six-year low, a trend that shows no signs of stopping after the billion-dollar whopper of a withdrawal.
That shows high conviction, long time horizons, and massive global support for the Bitcoin price moving forward.
6. Bitcoin ETFs Now Own 4% of BTC
According to data from BitMEX, spot Bitcoin ETFs held 776,464 BTC as the month of March opened. That’s a whopping 4% of all the Bitcoin there is, and the Wall Street-regulated ETF market just took a bite that size out of the on-chain spot supply of literal Bitcoin in under two months.
It’s not exactly Arthur Hayes’ nightmare scenario in which the ETFs “could destroy” Bitcoin, but it is a serious bite out of it in under two months, enough to portend a violent supply and demand shock providing massive support to skyrocket prices higher.
Grayscale Investments research head Zach Pandl said,
“There is simply not enough bitcoin to accommodate all the new demand, and so natural supply/demand dynamics are driving prices higher.”
7. Congress Floats Letting Banks Custody BTC
ETFs are going to battle for Bitcoin with retail investors. Moreover, banks may soon join the competition for Bitcoin and drive scarcity and prices to new levels.
在众议院金融服务委员会，众议员迈克·弗洛德（R-NE）最近提出了一项决议，“将通过消除阻止严格监管的银行充当数字资产托管人的障碍来确保消费者受到保护。”
首先，ETF 发行者和现在受监管的主要银行很快将能够托管比特币，从而导致全球已发行的 2100 万枚比特币出现稀缺。
供需冲击仍在持续。
帖子 7 表明比特币牛市在 70,000 美元后还有空间（观点）首先出现在 CryptoPotato 上。
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