[克里斯]为什么我选择比特币(克里斯为什么不告诉伊森)

linx 2024-11-20 13:12:05

为什么我选择比特币

It’s been funny, listening to podcasts about bitcoin for the last few months, because everybody starts their explanation by laying out the horrors of the fiat money system. I was lucky in the sense that I already understand how the money system is, like the tides, ebbing and flowing, naturally eroding away at people's purchasing power and transferring it to the state. This has been one of my long-held arguments for owning gold. As bitcoin continues to be adopted, it becomes a great reason for owning bitcoin, too, in my opinion. One thing I have always said about bitcoin is that I appreciate how much it has opened the eyes of people who normally would not have understood the horrors of modern monetary theory and global monetary policy.

What will be even cooler to witness, in my opinion, is the FOMO when, and if, the price once again breaches all-time highs. If bitcoin's price continues to perform well, asset managers who now have precisely no excuse not to buy bitcoin (since there are now spot ETFs that work within the system they are allowed to play in) will be inundated with calls from their clients wondering why they don't have any exposure to the asset, even if they don't understand it.

And this isn't GameStop, meaning that once price FOMO starts, there is no at-the-money equity offering to come in and dilute at higher prices. If a rush to grab "all you can eat" on the ledger starts in earnest, there will be no new supply magically coming out of nowhere to meet it. With bitcoin's total market cap still under $1 trillion, to me, it just seems to make sense that super-rich Middle Eastern countries will likely be the next to adopt it and put it on their sovereign balance sheets.

A lot of the podcasts I've listened to talk about nation-states that are mining bitcoin but won't talk about it. I believe this is happening. At some point, the lights are likely going to flip on globally and everybody's going to see what everybody else is holding. My guess is that some oil-rich countries in the Middle East, even if they see it as simply a call option with the potential to go to zero, will dabble in putting bitcoin on their sovereign balance sheets to try and diversify themselves and make a bet on the future of money. These people drive Bugattis to work and keep tigers as pets. To say that they don't have enough money to "speculate" on the potential future of money is laughable.

And then, once again, we fall back to the shuffle between bitcoin and the network, and how they fall into place and work in tandem together. The more major adoption it sees, the more secure it becomes, the more people want to invest in it, the more it becomes viable and mainstream. Bitcoin, to me, essentially looks like the open-source code equivalent to a self-fulfilling prophecy. The way it functions, as I said yesterday, essentially makes it a freedom-money virus. It has been unleashed, and it has become big enough that it is near impossible to stop over a short or even medium-term period of time. I thought Michael Saylor's analogies of the network essentially being a swarm of wasps was apt. How do you stop a swarm? You may kill one or two wasps, but at the end of the day, you're simply outnumbered. And with bitcoin, the ideology, plus the network, plus the redundancy, plus the fact that anybody can adopt it, nearly ensures that it is going to overpower its critics both in nodes and in computing horsepower.

我真的很期待对网络的潜在用途和比特币未来采用的途径进行更多研究。

不要误会我的意思，我仍然认为比特币是一种风险资产，因为如果采用速度减慢或倒退，网络就会变得更弱。

但我们现在所处的轨迹并不表明这种情况很快就会发生。

如果核心开发人员决定做出重大改变，或者量子计算最终使密码学更容易被破解，那么也会存在重大风险。

西方主要国家还存在试图禁止、监管或对比特币征税致死的风险，而且在意识形态上采用全新标准会带来大量未知的风险。

我在比特币中的权重处于一个水平，我可以完全失去它。

我预计未来价格将不止一次下跌 90%。

正如很多人所说，如果你这么担心，那你的权重就太大了。

我管理拥有比特币的风险，就像管理看涨期权或走进赌场一样。

如果我失去一切，我不会感到惊讶或沮丧。

但对我来说，从意识形态上来说，比特币想要解决的问题是有意义的。

我通过奥地利学派的视角看待事物，并坚信这个体系和全球经济已经崩溃。